New players being paired with top performers has led to a drastic change in Fantasy value across the NHL. Who would have thought a guy like Vladislav Namestnikiv would have any fantasy relevance before he was paired up with Stamkos and Kucherov on the red-hot lightning first line. Or that Josh Bailey would have 20 points in his first 18 games slotted beside John Tavares. For many stars, it has been a horrendous start to the season. Brent Burns is still looking for his first goal of the season despite leading all defencemen with 71 shots fired on net. And skilled forwards like Mitch Marner are still looking to recover the magic of last season as he continues to struggle to find his game late into November. In this article, we will take a look at which of these stars you can bank on turning their season around and should be attained at a good bargain, while also noting which ones to avoid, and who can be dependable waiver pickups that promise sustainable production.
Buy Low
Max Pacioretty - MTL, 20GP, 7G-5A, 12 points
It has been a disastrous start for Pacioretty and the Canadiens, who somehow found a way to give the Arizona Coyotes of all teams their first regulation win of the season on Thursday night. However, with Pacioretty, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The consistent 30+ goal scorer over the last 5 seasons currently leads the league in shots, with a whopping 94 shots in 20 games played. His current shooting percentage of 7.2% is well below his career average of 11.2%, so based on averages alone and an increase in shot attempts, you can expect his scoring to jump, and expect it to jump quick. He already has 8 points in his last 7 games, so get him at a bargain while you still can. Count on Pacioretty to get 30+ goals and 60+ points, like he has done the last 5 straight seasons. Odds are you could get an impatient owner to flip him for a much less consistent scorer who usually scores around 50 points and is currently overproducing by most standards.
Joe Pavelski - SJ, 17GP, 4G-4A, 8 points
Joe Pavelski has been one of the NHL's most consistent scorers of the last decade, posting 60+ points in every non-lockout season since 2010/11, and has reached the 70 point mark three times in that span. With that being said, he currently isn't looking so hot this season and has only gotten 8 points for the Sharks in 17 games. Reasonably, fantasy owners are beginning to worry about Pavelski and his struggling teammates. However, as Pavelski's shooting percentage begins to trend upward from 8.2% to his career average of 12% and his teammates begin to get out of their slumps, expect a surge of offense from Pavelski and the rest of the struggling offensive juggernauts in San Jose. Take advantage of an impatient fantasy owner and load up your roster by adding a consistent 60-70 point scorer like Pavelski to your lineup, it's only a matter of time before it will pay off.
Sell High
James Neal - VGK, 18 GP, 10G-5A, 15 points
The solid scorer has been an absolute hero for the expansion team through the first month of their season. While Neal has been a consistent 20+ goal scorer and is currently on pace for 45 goals this season, he is also close to doubling his career shooting percentage of 12.8% and is also starting to see his ice time trend downward through the last 5 games. There's no question the Golden Knights and James Neal are overproducing so far this season. However, I'm not saying you need to get rid of Neal, he is still a reliable source of offense, it is just likely that he could be traded for a much more valuable player who hasn't had the same kind of success early on in the season.
Logan Couture - SJ, 17GP, 10G-5A, 15 Points
Like Neal, I feel that as a fantasy owner you could sit perfectly happy with some early overproduction of this player and be perfectly happy with the results. As a player like Couture is still very likely to put up great numbers this year. However, especially in Couture's case, you could potentially flip this player to an unsatisfied owner for a superstar forward who could turn into one of your team's top producers come April. The reason I bring up Couture as potential trade bait is because he hasn't cracked 60 points since 2014/15 is injury prone, and is also currently holding a shooting percentage of 22%, nearly double his career average of 12.3%. With this kind of hot start, you could pull in a potential big fish with a guy like Couture, just be careful though, because he still possesses the talent to make you regret it.
Keep Your Eye On...
Kyle Connor - WPG, 13GP, 4G-4A, 8 Points
The Jets rookie is currently playing on a first line consisting of Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheiffle and has a spot on a star-studded first powerplay unit for the Jets. He is scoring at a respectable pace so far, and he could really make a splash if he keeps his current top line and first powerplay roles on a talented Jets roster. Especially if he's able to translate his torrid scoring touch from the USHL, NCAA, and AHL to the NHL level.
Gabriel Landeskog - COL, 18GP, 8G-6A, 14 Points
Last season was one to forget for the Swedish captain and the Colorado Avalanche. However, they have bounced back better than anyone would have thought. Landeskog appears to be back to his 50-60 point range. And with a higher scoring Avalanche team and a comfy spot on the top line and first powerplay unit, I see no reason he doesn't regain that range in a comeback season.
Conclusion
This time of year sees fantasy owners that love to over evaluate players who are off to hot starts. When looking to acquire or ship off players with bolstering starts to their seasons, be sure to consider factors that contribute to sustainable production like where they slot in the line-up, TOI, time on PP, SOG, and Shooting %. Also be sure to consider how their numbers in November compare to their career averages. There are many cases so far of players who are looking like they will have great seasons due to playing on top lines with star players and should hold significant value despite their lack of production in recent years. Players like Sean Couturier, Vladislav Namestnikov, Jason Pominville, and Josh Bailey are a few players who look poised to carry on successful seasons due to their roles next to superstars like Giroux, Stamkos, Eichel, and Tavares. Be sure to keep your eye out for players who emerge after being slotted next to talented phenoms, because they are coming, and could be the piece that carries your fantasy team to the top.
