Fantasy Friday: Lethal Forwards

New players being paired with top performers has led to a drastic change in Fantasy value across the NHL. Who would have thought a guy like Vladislav Namestnikiv would have any fantasy relevance before he was paired up with Stamkos and Kucherov on the red-hot lightning first line. Or that Josh Bailey would have 20 points in his first 18 games slotted beside John Tavares. For many stars, it has been a horrendous start to the season. Brent Burns is still looking for his first goal of the season despite leading all defencemen with 71 shots fired on net.  And skilled forwards like Mitch Marner are still looking to recover the magic of last season as he continues to struggle to find his game late into November. In this article, we will take a look at which of these stars you can bank on turning their season around and should be attained at a good bargain, while also noting which ones to avoid, and who can be dependable waiver pickups that promise sustainable production. 

Buy Low 

Max Pacioretty - MTL, 20GP, 7G-5A, 12 points 

It has been a disastrous start for Pacioretty and the Canadiens, who somehow found a way to give the Arizona Coyotes of all teams their first regulation win of the season on Thursday night. However, with Pacioretty, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The consistent 30+ goal scorer over the last 5 seasons currently leads the league in shots, with a whopping 94 shots in 20 games played. His current shooting percentage of 7.2% is well below his career average of 11.2%, so based on averages alone and an increase in shot attempts, you can expect his scoring to jump, and expect it to jump quick. He already has 8 points in his last 7 games, so get him at a bargain while you still can. Count on Pacioretty to get 30+ goals and 60+ points, like he has done the last 5 straight seasons. Odds are you could get an impatient owner to flip him for a much less consistent scorer who usually scores around 50 points and is currently overproducing by most standards. 

Joe Pavelski - SJ, 17GP, 4G-4A, 8 points
Joe Pavelski has been one of the NHL's most consistent scorers of the last decade, posting 60+ points in every non-lockout season since 2010/11, and has reached the 70 point mark three times in that span. With that being said, he currently isn't looking so hot this season and has only gotten 8 points for the Sharks in 17 games. Reasonably, fantasy owners are beginning to worry about Pavelski and his struggling teammates. However, as Pavelski's shooting percentage begins to trend upward from 8.2% to his career average of 12% and his teammates begin to get out of their slumps, expect a surge of offense from Pavelski and the rest of the struggling offensive juggernauts in San Jose. Take advantage of an impatient fantasy owner and load up your roster by adding a consistent 60-70 point scorer like Pavelski to your lineup, it's only a matter of time before it will pay off. 

Sell High

James Neal - VGK, 18 GP, 10G-5A, 15 points 

The solid scorer has been an absolute hero for the expansion team through the first month of their season. While Neal has been a consistent 20+ goal scorer and is currently on pace for 45 goals this season, he is also close to doubling his career shooting percentage of 12.8% and is also starting to see his ice time trend downward through the last 5 games. There's no question the Golden Knights and James Neal are overproducing so far this season. However, I'm not saying you need to get rid of Neal, he is still a reliable source of offense, it is just likely that he could be traded for a much more valuable player who hasn't had the same kind of success early on in the season. 

Logan Couture - SJ, 17GP, 10G-5A, 15 Points

Like Neal, I feel that as a fantasy owner you could sit perfectly happy with some early overproduction of this player and be perfectly happy with the results. As a player like Couture is still very likely to put up great numbers this year. However, especially in Couture's case, you could potentially flip this player to an unsatisfied owner for a superstar forward who could turn into one of your team's top producers come April. The reason I bring up Couture as potential trade bait is because he hasn't cracked 60 points since 2014/15 is injury prone, and is also currently holding a shooting percentage of 22%, nearly double his career average of 12.3%. With this kind of hot start, you could pull in a potential big fish with a guy like Couture, just be careful though, because he still possesses the talent to make you regret it. 

Keep Your Eye On...

Kyle Connor - WPG, 13GP, 4G-4A, 8 Points

The Jets rookie is currently playing on a first line consisting of Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheiffle and has a spot on a star-studded first powerplay unit for the Jets. He is scoring at a respectable pace so far, and he could really make a splash if he keeps his current top line and first powerplay roles on a talented Jets roster. Especially if he's able to translate his torrid scoring touch from the USHL, NCAA, and AHL to the NHL level. 

Gabriel Landeskog - COL, 18GP, 8G-6A, 14 Points

Last season was one to forget for the Swedish captain and the Colorado Avalanche. However, they have bounced back better than anyone would have thought. Landeskog appears to be back to his 50-60 point range. And with a higher scoring Avalanche team and a comfy spot on the top line and first powerplay unit, I see no reason he doesn't regain that range in a comeback season. 

Conclusion

This time of year sees fantasy owners that love to over evaluate players who are off to hot starts. When looking to acquire or ship off players with bolstering starts to their seasons, be sure to consider factors that contribute to sustainable production like where they slot in the line-up, TOI, time on PP, SOG, and Shooting %. Also be sure to consider how their numbers in November compare to their career averages. There are many cases so far of players who are looking like they will have great seasons due to playing on top lines with star players and should hold significant value despite their lack of production in recent years. Players like Sean Couturier, Vladislav Namestnikov, Jason Pominville, and Josh Bailey are a few players who look poised to carry on successful seasons due to their roles next to superstars like Giroux, Stamkos, Eichel, and Tavares. Be sure to keep your eye out for players who emerge after being slotted next to talented phenoms, because they are coming, and could be the piece that carries your fantasy team to the top. 

How Will Cammalleri Impact the Oilers Roster?

Just before puck drop on Wednesday, The Edmonton Oilers flipped struggling defensive forward Jussi Jokinen for Los Angeles' streaky scorer Michael Cammalleri. Peter Chiarelli has made it very clear that he was shopping Jokinen after being disappointed with the starts to his offseason acquisitions. While the Jokinen experiment didn't work out, shuffling the cards for a proven scorer in Cammellari could help the Oilers find the depth scoring they have been desperately looking for. Oilers fans are hoping that Cammalleri will have an impact on the roster in a way Jussi Jokinen just wasn't able to do.

As per DailyFaceOff.com, Mike Cammalleri will be situated next to Ryan Strome and Iiro Pakarinen on the third line for tonight's matchup against the St.Louis Blues, currently holding the spot as the best in the west. Cammalleri coming into this role pushes struggling Drake Caggiuila down to the fourth line and takes Jujhar Khaira out of the lineup. It is unfortunate to see a young forward Khaira who was finally coming into his own get knocked out of the lineup. He made a solid case for Todd McLellan to keep him by providing a goal and two assists, one being a remarkable shorthanded pass to set up Oscar Klefbom's goal, in two solid games with the big club in November. While it is hard to see a young player go who has been playing up to par in his short stint in the Oilers Lineup, this trade still adds to a key piece of Chia's philosophy: adding competition in depth roles. When a player in a bottom role sees Jokinen get shipped out of town when he isn't producing, that player has got to be wondering what happens to him once a guy like Slepyshev returns to the lineup. You better bet he's going to step up his game, or he won't have a spot in the lineup, especially with young guys like Khaira breathing down their neck hungry for a spot with the main squad. That's why I feel this was an important trade for Chiarelli to make, It sends a message that no one should be comfortable, and adds, even more, competition for depth spots.

Another reason I like this trade is that it is a pure one for one swap of veteran players. I wouldn't have wanted to see any resources given up unless it was for a bonafide 20 goal scorer who could play in the top six night in and night out. Trading a struggling Jokinen for a known sniper who didn't like where he fit in the Kings lineup efficiently helps add to depth scoring, something that has a been a major struggle this year as the Oilers held down the fort of last place in Goals For before erupting for 8 goals past the expansion Golden Knights. There is no harm in bringing in a known sniper to see if he can spark some offense and bring another weapon to the second powerplay, while also pushing struggling forwards to find their game and find it quick.

I could look into deep analytical stats comparing Jokinen to Cammalleri, but at the end of the day, it comes down to this: The Oilers swapped a struggling 34-year-old with 1point and decent possession numbers for another veteran with an almost identical contract who has been scoring at a respectable pace so far this season. There is absolutely no risk involved in this trade whatsoever. If Jokinen does find his game in Los Angeles, well good for him he's still 34. And if Cammalleri doesn't work out, he's a 35-year-old on a one year contract that can be dumped at the Oilers pleasure. The best case scenario is the Oilers finally spark some depth scoring and add another piece to their second powerplay unit. It's only a matter of time before the Oilers find themselves out of the bottom of the league for goals for, and while it would be nice to bring in a horse of a goal scorer to put in the top six, a trade like this can only benefit a boost in goal production from happening sooner rather than later.

Closer look at the Battle of Alberta

With big Free agent signings and the rising of promising prospects hockey fans all over the nation are greatly anticipating the return of the battle of Alberta. Lets compare depth charts to see how this could play out next season.

Legend:
Green - advantage
Red - disadvantage
Blue - similar

OILERS:

Hall - Nuge - Eberle

Pouliot - McDavid - Yakupov

Korpikoski - Letestu - Purcell

Hendricks - Lander - Klinkhammer

Pitlick - Draisaitl Gazdic

Klefbom - Sekera

Shultz - Fayne

Reinhart - Gryba

Ference - Nurse

Nikitin - Davidson

Talbot

Scrivens

Nilsson

FLAMES:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Hudler

Raymond - Backlund - Frolik

Bouma - Stajan - Jones

Bennet - Granlund - Colborne

Jooris - Shore - Byron

Bollig - Grant - Ferland

Hamilton - Giordano

Widemen - Brodie 

Russel - Smid

Engelland - Potter

Hiller

Ramo

Forwards: Advantage- Oilers, Calgary has a deeper forward core than Edmonton, however their top 6 doesn't come close to the talent of Edmonton's. The Oilers have the advantage in this category

Defence: Advantage- Flames, boy this was easy. Calgary's second pairing is arguably better than Edmonton's 1st pairing. They also have one of the best defensive cores in the NHL. Edmonton doesn't even compare, So the Flames have a big advantage in this category

Goalie: Advantage- Flames, Calgary will again ride this season with the 1A 1B option of  Hiller and Ramo. While Edmonton is hoping Talbot can bring similar numbers over from New York. Calgary's goalies will be playing in front of a stronger D-core and have much more stability with having confidence in throwing in Ramo if Hiller is struggling, So the Flames get the advantage here too.

Oilers
 Forwards Strengths: Top six skill, Bottom six size
 Forwards Weaknesses: Top six size, Bottom six scoring

Defence Strengths: Depth,
Defence Weaknesses: Not enough top pairing dmen

Goalie Strengths: Potential
Goalie Weaknesses: Stability, Not proven

Flames 
Forwards Strengths: Depth, Scoring throughout the lineup
Forwards Weaknesses: Top Six (shouldn't be considered a weakness, but is their weakest part)

Defence Strengths: Top six, depth
Weakness: Not much at all, maybe size

Goalies Strengths: Depth
Goalies Weakness: Could use a stronger number 1, but still have a strong goalie tandem.

Final Verdict: Flames ultimately have the better roster, However it will be a much closer battle of Alberta. The Oilers could be as close as a top 2 defencemen and a 1A 1B goalie tandem from being the stronger team. Nonetheless these two teams are on the rise and Alberta may not be far away from having two of the best teams in the NHL.


Adam Girard
Writer/Co-founder - OILERS INSIDERS

Why Todd McLellan might be the Perfect Candidate for the Oilers

With the Oilers winning the Mcdavid sweepstakes just a few days ago it means that it is time for management to get their act together and prove that they mean business. Hiring Todd McLellan would do just that. McLellan is an experienced coach that has paid his dues working in many leagues like the Western Hockey League and American Hockey League, as well as winning a cup as Mike Babcocks assistant coach in 2008. The following year McLellan got a head coaching gig with the San Jose Sharks. A gig that would see him lead the sharks to the playoffs each and every year since the 2008/09 season except this most recent one, along with one presidents trophy.

McLellan is a coach who would never consider the Oilers a few years ago, but now we have a McDavid. The next NHL superstar surrounded by a bunch of young talented players like Hall, Eberle, Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, Shultz, and Nurse just to name a few. Who wouldn't want to coach a team that is potentially the next dynasty if its managed right.

McLellan also had a legitimate goaltender last season. A goaltender who just so happens to be a free agent this summer. Depending on their relationship, McLellan could help the Oilers lure Antti Niemi to Edmonton. Now I know Niemi is no game changer, but he is a significant upgrade from Scrivens, and since he is a free agent we wouldn't have to worry about giving up someone from our young core to get a starting goaltender. Annti Niemi would be the first bonafide goalie Edmonton has seen in a long time. 

Now, obviously this isn't a decision the Oilers should make today. I'd suggest they make that decision after a few more big name coaches are relieved of their duties, or a bit after the Men's World Hockey Championships  A tournament which McLellan is coaching team Canada, and Hall, Eberle, and Shultz are all playing under him. So the Oilers will defiantly talk to their players participating at the Worlds. This will allow the Oilers to learn how some of their top players like McLellans coaching style before they even offer him a job. So we know that if the Oilers hire Mclellan they will be very confident in their decision.

I feel bad for Nelson in this situation, he did a great job and deserves to be a coach in the National Hockey League, and I believe he'll get there one day. However the Oilers can't pass up this opportunity to hire an experienced coach like McLellan or one of the other big names that could be available this off-season. It would show that we are committed to taking the next steps toward becoming a successful organization. A lot of people are tired changing coaches almost every year, however if we land a coach like McLellan it would be a long time before we decide we need to replace him.

Get ready to hear a lot about Todd Mclellan. He will be very high on the Oilers radar. There is a very good chance he could be working the bench for Edmonton next season.

5 Reasons the Oilers Aren't a Playoff Team this Season

Most of us aren't very happy that another season involving the Oilers missing the playoffs for the 9th consecutive year is finally coming to a close. There are many reasons why the Oilers summer is starting early. I've narrowed it down to the 5 biggest reasons the Oilers won't be participating in the postseason and are again stuck at the bottom this season.

5. Lack of Veteran presence

With an average age of 26.236 the Edmonton Oilers are the second youngest team in the NHL. It doesn't help either that none of our top players are older than 24. Unless you consider Derick Roy and Benoit Pouliot top players which I most defiantly do not. Roy and Pouliot are doing great, however they are barely impact players on cup contending teams. We have some older players in the depth roles of our defence. However we don't have a good top two veteran defencemen to carry the load. The Oilers are losing many games because we are forced  to rely heavily on our young stars due to the lack of veteran presence in our top roles. Mac T has done an alright job in bringing depth role veterans in our lineup. He's still gonna have to make a splash this summer and bring in veterans that can help our young stars carry this team to the postseason.

4. Lack of size in our top roles and consistent physical play

The Edmonton Oilers are playing in the heaviest, hard-checking division in hockey. They need more size and consistent checking throughout the game. The Oilers beat the Kings last Tuesday because they were the more physical team. They were hitting everything in sight against a team that usually pushes them around like a junior team. The Oilers have one of the smallest top lines in the NHL. They are bound to have troubles being successful against the big teams of the West. Our 3rd and 4th lines are getting bigger and starting pushing back against larger teams. If we can start to integrate big top line players into are system it shouldn't be long until we see some playoff action in oil country.

3. 2nd Line not up to par with NHL powerhouses

The Oilers active second line consist of Purcell - Roy - Yakupov. However when the Oilers are injury free their second line is usually Pouliot - Roy - Yakupov. This is a very very good 3RD LINE and a below average 2nd. It is pretty close though, in a few years Draisaitl will take over the 2nd line centre role so they are really only one accusation away. Depending on who they draft this year could also potentially upgrade our second line significantly. Although, Mac T should not focus on acquiring players for our top 6 forward crop this off season. Unless they come as part of package deal involving a top defencemen or legitimate starting goaltender. Those issues are much more severe than our 2nd line problems.

2. Horrendous defence core 

Our defencive core does not even consist of one top two defencemen. Some may argue that Justin Shultz is a top 2 NHL defencemen. He defiantly has the potential to be, However he needs someone else to do the heavy lifting. Justin Shultz could become an outstanding line mate to support a large skilled defencemen. Marincin still is does not look ready for the NHL. You could likely make a very long video of mishaps and turnovers made by young Oilers defencemen this season. Although it may not seem like it our depth is coming along nicely. We are mainly just missing a strong top 2 defencemen to carry the load.

1. Goaltending

The Oilers average less shots against per game than both the Montreal Canadiens and Chicago Blackhawks. Yet they are still dead last in goals against per game. It has been an extremely long time since the Oilers have seen a true number one goalie in their system. Scrivens, Bachman, and Fasth just aren't gonna cut it if we plan on ever being competitive. Mac T has got to lay all his cards on the table this summer  to insure start next season with a proven starter that can put the team on his shoulders and steal those tough games like a good starter does. We have a few great rookies in our system but they are still quite a few years away from being starters in the big leagues. So the Oilers are going to have to seek help by acquiring a proven goaltender through  free agency or a trade.

Solving Oilers Goalies Woes

It's no secret that Edmonton easily has possibly the worst goalie combos in the NHL, and that changes need to be made this offseason if we expect to compete in the future. Here are two goalies that will give the Oilers the strongest goaltending they've had in over a decade:

Karri Lehtonen (DAL), backed up by Matt O'Connor (Boston University)

Why the Oilers should Pursue them?

Lehtonen: The Dallas Stars have been becoming disgruntled with weak goals and the at times inconsistent play of Karri Lehtotonen and may be lookimg for someone different inbetween the pipes this season. However, Lehtonen is a flashy goalie that can steal games at times, and puts up good numbers. Which is exactly what this current Oilers roster needs. He is also a proven starter which we have been looking to aquire for as long as I can remember.

O'Connor: A goalie like Karri Lehtonen needs a steady backup, and Boston University goalie  Matt O'Connor is only 2-3 seasons away from becoming a solid NHL regular and would be a perfect backup for next season. He put up unbelievable numbers in college. If he's not quite ready for NHL competion Richard Bachman could backup also, and O'Connor could come up whenever there is an injury.

What would it take to get them?

Lehtonen: A possible trade proposal to Dallas that may work although it would take some guts for Mactavish to go through with could be: Eberle or Yakupov for Karri Lehtonen, Jamie Oleksiak ( 6'7 241 pound defencemen drafted 14th overall in 2011), and either a conditional 2nd round pick or a depth roster player. Other otions could include a high end prospect and and Fasth plus 3rd rounder for just Lehtonen.

O'Connor: as much cash as we can give him and a boatland of promises.

What would hold them back?

Lehtonen: The Stars would only deal Lehtonen if they had someone to replace him, and the Oilers don't have anyone that would do that. So we have to hope they pursure other options like signing Niemi or trading for someone else. It is also unknown if Dallas would be willing to ship his talents to a conference rival.

O'Connor: The only thing that would stop us from signing O'Connor would be the amount of teams interested in his services. His agent has stated that O'Connor would like to recieve imediate playing time. The Oilers and Sabres are considered the frontrunners in the Boston University goalie sweepstakes, since they are a few of the only teams that currently have room for him on their rosters.

Other available options:

Antti Niemi (FA): The far from flashy goaltender is arguably the best available goaltender on the market this offseason, in contention with Devan Dubnyk (I'm sorry). He could offer consistent play and good numbers if we provide him with a better defensive roster than what we have now.

Karri Ramo (FA): Put up great numbers this season in Calgary and proved he can win games at the NHL level, him and Niemi would provide a solid goaltending pair.

Mike Smith (Trade): It's unknown if Arizona will be open to trading him but they may be looking to move him for key prospects and picks to start their rebuild. The coyotes have a couple of very good goalie prospects in their system. Some of you may remember Mark Visentin from Team Canada's IIHF World Junior team a few years ago. If we made some significant upgrades to our defence core, and Smith finds his groove, he could help us reach the success we have been looking to achieve for some time now.

Cam Ward (Trade): similiar situation as Smith except it is clear that Carolina is open to trading Ward. A little confidence boost and a change of scenery along with an upgraded Oilers defence core could help bring back a Cam Ward all us Oilers fans remember too well from 2OO6.

Cam Talbot (FA): The rangers backup put up absolutley unbelievable numbers when coming in for the injured Lundqvist. However this was during a short amount of time so I wouldn't  go any farther than backup position for him. Hopefully with time he could turn into a consintent NHL starter for a long time to come.