Fantasy Friday: Lethal Forwards

New players being paired with top performers has led to a drastic change in Fantasy value across the NHL. Who would have thought a guy like Vladislav Namestnikiv would have any fantasy relevance before he was paired up with Stamkos and Kucherov on the red-hot lightning first line. Or that Josh Bailey would have 20 points in his first 18 games slotted beside John Tavares. For many stars, it has been a horrendous start to the season. Brent Burns is still looking for his first goal of the season despite leading all defencemen with 71 shots fired on net.  And skilled forwards like Mitch Marner are still looking to recover the magic of last season as he continues to struggle to find his game late into November. In this article, we will take a look at which of these stars you can bank on turning their season around and should be attained at a good bargain, while also noting which ones to avoid, and who can be dependable waiver pickups that promise sustainable production. 

Buy Low 

Max Pacioretty - MTL, 20GP, 7G-5A, 12 points 

It has been a disastrous start for Pacioretty and the Canadiens, who somehow found a way to give the Arizona Coyotes of all teams their first regulation win of the season on Thursday night. However, with Pacioretty, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The consistent 30+ goal scorer over the last 5 seasons currently leads the league in shots, with a whopping 94 shots in 20 games played. His current shooting percentage of 7.2% is well below his career average of 11.2%, so based on averages alone and an increase in shot attempts, you can expect his scoring to jump, and expect it to jump quick. He already has 8 points in his last 7 games, so get him at a bargain while you still can. Count on Pacioretty to get 30+ goals and 60+ points, like he has done the last 5 straight seasons. Odds are you could get an impatient owner to flip him for a much less consistent scorer who usually scores around 50 points and is currently overproducing by most standards. 

Joe Pavelski - SJ, 17GP, 4G-4A, 8 points
Joe Pavelski has been one of the NHL's most consistent scorers of the last decade, posting 60+ points in every non-lockout season since 2010/11, and has reached the 70 point mark three times in that span. With that being said, he currently isn't looking so hot this season and has only gotten 8 points for the Sharks in 17 games. Reasonably, fantasy owners are beginning to worry about Pavelski and his struggling teammates. However, as Pavelski's shooting percentage begins to trend upward from 8.2% to his career average of 12% and his teammates begin to get out of their slumps, expect a surge of offense from Pavelski and the rest of the struggling offensive juggernauts in San Jose. Take advantage of an impatient fantasy owner and load up your roster by adding a consistent 60-70 point scorer like Pavelski to your lineup, it's only a matter of time before it will pay off. 

Sell High

James Neal - VGK, 18 GP, 10G-5A, 15 points 

The solid scorer has been an absolute hero for the expansion team through the first month of their season. While Neal has been a consistent 20+ goal scorer and is currently on pace for 45 goals this season, he is also close to doubling his career shooting percentage of 12.8% and is also starting to see his ice time trend downward through the last 5 games. There's no question the Golden Knights and James Neal are overproducing so far this season. However, I'm not saying you need to get rid of Neal, he is still a reliable source of offense, it is just likely that he could be traded for a much more valuable player who hasn't had the same kind of success early on in the season. 

Logan Couture - SJ, 17GP, 10G-5A, 15 Points

Like Neal, I feel that as a fantasy owner you could sit perfectly happy with some early overproduction of this player and be perfectly happy with the results. As a player like Couture is still very likely to put up great numbers this year. However, especially in Couture's case, you could potentially flip this player to an unsatisfied owner for a superstar forward who could turn into one of your team's top producers come April. The reason I bring up Couture as potential trade bait is because he hasn't cracked 60 points since 2014/15 is injury prone, and is also currently holding a shooting percentage of 22%, nearly double his career average of 12.3%. With this kind of hot start, you could pull in a potential big fish with a guy like Couture, just be careful though, because he still possesses the talent to make you regret it. 

Keep Your Eye On...

Kyle Connor - WPG, 13GP, 4G-4A, 8 Points

The Jets rookie is currently playing on a first line consisting of Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheiffle and has a spot on a star-studded first powerplay unit for the Jets. He is scoring at a respectable pace so far, and he could really make a splash if he keeps his current top line and first powerplay roles on a talented Jets roster. Especially if he's able to translate his torrid scoring touch from the USHL, NCAA, and AHL to the NHL level. 

Gabriel Landeskog - COL, 18GP, 8G-6A, 14 Points

Last season was one to forget for the Swedish captain and the Colorado Avalanche. However, they have bounced back better than anyone would have thought. Landeskog appears to be back to his 50-60 point range. And with a higher scoring Avalanche team and a comfy spot on the top line and first powerplay unit, I see no reason he doesn't regain that range in a comeback season. 

Conclusion

This time of year sees fantasy owners that love to over evaluate players who are off to hot starts. When looking to acquire or ship off players with bolstering starts to their seasons, be sure to consider factors that contribute to sustainable production like where they slot in the line-up, TOI, time on PP, SOG, and Shooting %. Also be sure to consider how their numbers in November compare to their career averages. There are many cases so far of players who are looking like they will have great seasons due to playing on top lines with star players and should hold significant value despite their lack of production in recent years. Players like Sean Couturier, Vladislav Namestnikov, Jason Pominville, and Josh Bailey are a few players who look poised to carry on successful seasons due to their roles next to superstars like Giroux, Stamkos, Eichel, and Tavares. Be sure to keep your eye out for players who emerge after being slotted next to talented phenoms, because they are coming, and could be the piece that carries your fantasy team to the top. 

How Will Cammalleri Impact the Oilers Roster?

Just before puck drop on Wednesday, The Edmonton Oilers flipped struggling defensive forward Jussi Jokinen for Los Angeles' streaky scorer Michael Cammalleri. Peter Chiarelli has made it very clear that he was shopping Jokinen after being disappointed with the starts to his offseason acquisitions. While the Jokinen experiment didn't work out, shuffling the cards for a proven scorer in Cammellari could help the Oilers find the depth scoring they have been desperately looking for. Oilers fans are hoping that Cammalleri will have an impact on the roster in a way Jussi Jokinen just wasn't able to do.

As per DailyFaceOff.com, Mike Cammalleri will be situated next to Ryan Strome and Iiro Pakarinen on the third line for tonight's matchup against the St.Louis Blues, currently holding the spot as the best in the west. Cammalleri coming into this role pushes struggling Drake Caggiuila down to the fourth line and takes Jujhar Khaira out of the lineup. It is unfortunate to see a young forward Khaira who was finally coming into his own get knocked out of the lineup. He made a solid case for Todd McLellan to keep him by providing a goal and two assists, one being a remarkable shorthanded pass to set up Oscar Klefbom's goal, in two solid games with the big club in November. While it is hard to see a young player go who has been playing up to par in his short stint in the Oilers Lineup, this trade still adds to a key piece of Chia's philosophy: adding competition in depth roles. When a player in a bottom role sees Jokinen get shipped out of town when he isn't producing, that player has got to be wondering what happens to him once a guy like Slepyshev returns to the lineup. You better bet he's going to step up his game, or he won't have a spot in the lineup, especially with young guys like Khaira breathing down their neck hungry for a spot with the main squad. That's why I feel this was an important trade for Chiarelli to make, It sends a message that no one should be comfortable, and adds, even more, competition for depth spots.

Another reason I like this trade is that it is a pure one for one swap of veteran players. I wouldn't have wanted to see any resources given up unless it was for a bonafide 20 goal scorer who could play in the top six night in and night out. Trading a struggling Jokinen for a known sniper who didn't like where he fit in the Kings lineup efficiently helps add to depth scoring, something that has a been a major struggle this year as the Oilers held down the fort of last place in Goals For before erupting for 8 goals past the expansion Golden Knights. There is no harm in bringing in a known sniper to see if he can spark some offense and bring another weapon to the second powerplay, while also pushing struggling forwards to find their game and find it quick.

I could look into deep analytical stats comparing Jokinen to Cammalleri, but at the end of the day, it comes down to this: The Oilers swapped a struggling 34-year-old with 1point and decent possession numbers for another veteran with an almost identical contract who has been scoring at a respectable pace so far this season. There is absolutely no risk involved in this trade whatsoever. If Jokinen does find his game in Los Angeles, well good for him he's still 34. And if Cammalleri doesn't work out, he's a 35-year-old on a one year contract that can be dumped at the Oilers pleasure. The best case scenario is the Oilers finally spark some depth scoring and add another piece to their second powerplay unit. It's only a matter of time before the Oilers find themselves out of the bottom of the league for goals for, and while it would be nice to bring in a horse of a goal scorer to put in the top six, a trade like this can only benefit a boost in goal production from happening sooner rather than later.

How Much Better Are The Edmonton Oilers Heading into 2017?

With just one game remaining before the start of the New Year the Oilers are 18-12-6 and sit ahead of NHL powerhouses like the Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings. For the first time since 2006 Edmonton Oilers fans are finally able to continue to hold onto playoff hopes, as they cheer on their team going into the new year. In years past, fans of the Oilers have stopped looking at the standings by the time they turned their calendars to the month of November. This year looks like the team has finally made the change in competitiveness that fans have been desperately waiting for, as the team sits 2nd in the Pacific division heading into 2017 and shows signs that they are really for real...for real. Let’s take a look at how much have the Oilers have improved going into the 2017 half of the season compared to the 2015/16 season.

	2015/16 Oilers	2016 Oilers	Difference
Winning %	.427 (Rank: 29)	.583 (Rank: 12)	+ 0.156 (Rank: +17)
GF/GP	2.43 (Rank: T25)	2.86 (Rank: 8)	+ 0.43 (Rank: +17)
GA/GP	2.95 (Rank: 27)	2.64 (Rank: 13)	- 0.31 (Rank: +14)
PP%	18.1 (Rank 18)	21.2 (Rank 8)	+3.1 (Rank +10)
PK%	81.1 (Rank: 18)	82.0 (Rank:13)	+0.9 (Rank +5)
Shots/GP	29.1 (Rank 22)	30.7 (Rank 7)	+1.6 (Rank +15)
SA/GP	31.1 (Rank 26)	30.3 (Rank 17)	-0.8 (Rank +9)
5v5 CF/60	54.19 (Rank 18)	55.46 (Rank 12)	+1.27 (Rank +6)
5v5 CA/60	56.92 (Rank 25)	53.23 (Rank 11)	-3.69 (Rank +14)
OZFO%	30.25 (Rank 27)	33.29 (Rank 12)	+3.04 (Rank +15)
DZFO%	33.01 (Rank 24)	30.19 (Rank 8)	- 2.82 (Rank +16)

All stats found on NHL.com and Puckalytics.com

Glossary of all stats used can be found on Puckalytics.com

What It All Means

The 2016 Oilers cleared the board for literally every stat. A look at the numbers really shows how much this team has improved in 2016, and why they will be fighting for their first playoff berth since 2006 in the New Year. While the Oilers have improved on every single statistic I used in this article, there are three that stick out to me that help explain why the team has massively improved their winning percentage 2017. Goals For/GP, Shot/GP, and Offensive Zone Faceoff Percentage. These three stats show how much more time the Oilers are spending in the offensive zone, compared to years past.

The Oilers have went from being a bottom 10 team in 80% of the categories in 2015/16, to being a top 15 team in 90% of the categories in 2016. This shows that this team is ready to contend every single night and are a legitimate playoff team. Oilers fans should get ready because this team is going to be in it for the haul this season.

Adam Girard

Founder/Writer - OILERS INSIDERS