Fantasy Friday: Lethal Forwards

New players being paired with top performers has led to a drastic change in Fantasy value across the NHL. Who would have thought a guy like Vladislav Namestnikiv would have any fantasy relevance before he was paired up with Stamkos and Kucherov on the red-hot lightning first line. Or that Josh Bailey would have 20 points in his first 18 games slotted beside John Tavares. For many stars, it has been a horrendous start to the season. Brent Burns is still looking for his first goal of the season despite leading all defencemen with 71 shots fired on net.  And skilled forwards like Mitch Marner are still looking to recover the magic of last season as he continues to struggle to find his game late into November. In this article, we will take a look at which of these stars you can bank on turning their season around and should be attained at a good bargain, while also noting which ones to avoid, and who can be dependable waiver pickups that promise sustainable production. 

Buy Low 

Max Pacioretty - MTL, 20GP, 7G-5A, 12 points 

It has been a disastrous start for Pacioretty and the Canadiens, who somehow found a way to give the Arizona Coyotes of all teams their first regulation win of the season on Thursday night. However, with Pacioretty, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The consistent 30+ goal scorer over the last 5 seasons currently leads the league in shots, with a whopping 94 shots in 20 games played. His current shooting percentage of 7.2% is well below his career average of 11.2%, so based on averages alone and an increase in shot attempts, you can expect his scoring to jump, and expect it to jump quick. He already has 8 points in his last 7 games, so get him at a bargain while you still can. Count on Pacioretty to get 30+ goals and 60+ points, like he has done the last 5 straight seasons. Odds are you could get an impatient owner to flip him for a much less consistent scorer who usually scores around 50 points and is currently overproducing by most standards. 

Joe Pavelski - SJ, 17GP, 4G-4A, 8 points
Joe Pavelski has been one of the NHL's most consistent scorers of the last decade, posting 60+ points in every non-lockout season since 2010/11, and has reached the 70 point mark three times in that span. With that being said, he currently isn't looking so hot this season and has only gotten 8 points for the Sharks in 17 games. Reasonably, fantasy owners are beginning to worry about Pavelski and his struggling teammates. However, as Pavelski's shooting percentage begins to trend upward from 8.2% to his career average of 12% and his teammates begin to get out of their slumps, expect a surge of offense from Pavelski and the rest of the struggling offensive juggernauts in San Jose. Take advantage of an impatient fantasy owner and load up your roster by adding a consistent 60-70 point scorer like Pavelski to your lineup, it's only a matter of time before it will pay off. 

Sell High

James Neal - VGK, 18 GP, 10G-5A, 15 points 

The solid scorer has been an absolute hero for the expansion team through the first month of their season. While Neal has been a consistent 20+ goal scorer and is currently on pace for 45 goals this season, he is also close to doubling his career shooting percentage of 12.8% and is also starting to see his ice time trend downward through the last 5 games. There's no question the Golden Knights and James Neal are overproducing so far this season. However, I'm not saying you need to get rid of Neal, he is still a reliable source of offense, it is just likely that he could be traded for a much more valuable player who hasn't had the same kind of success early on in the season. 

Logan Couture - SJ, 17GP, 10G-5A, 15 Points

Like Neal, I feel that as a fantasy owner you could sit perfectly happy with some early overproduction of this player and be perfectly happy with the results. As a player like Couture is still very likely to put up great numbers this year. However, especially in Couture's case, you could potentially flip this player to an unsatisfied owner for a superstar forward who could turn into one of your team's top producers come April. The reason I bring up Couture as potential trade bait is because he hasn't cracked 60 points since 2014/15 is injury prone, and is also currently holding a shooting percentage of 22%, nearly double his career average of 12.3%. With this kind of hot start, you could pull in a potential big fish with a guy like Couture, just be careful though, because he still possesses the talent to make you regret it. 

Keep Your Eye On...

Kyle Connor - WPG, 13GP, 4G-4A, 8 Points

The Jets rookie is currently playing on a first line consisting of Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheiffle and has a spot on a star-studded first powerplay unit for the Jets. He is scoring at a respectable pace so far, and he could really make a splash if he keeps his current top line and first powerplay roles on a talented Jets roster. Especially if he's able to translate his torrid scoring touch from the USHL, NCAA, and AHL to the NHL level. 

Gabriel Landeskog - COL, 18GP, 8G-6A, 14 Points

Last season was one to forget for the Swedish captain and the Colorado Avalanche. However, they have bounced back better than anyone would have thought. Landeskog appears to be back to his 50-60 point range. And with a higher scoring Avalanche team and a comfy spot on the top line and first powerplay unit, I see no reason he doesn't regain that range in a comeback season. 

Conclusion

This time of year sees fantasy owners that love to over evaluate players who are off to hot starts. When looking to acquire or ship off players with bolstering starts to their seasons, be sure to consider factors that contribute to sustainable production like where they slot in the line-up, TOI, time on PP, SOG, and Shooting %. Also be sure to consider how their numbers in November compare to their career averages. There are many cases so far of players who are looking like they will have great seasons due to playing on top lines with star players and should hold significant value despite their lack of production in recent years. Players like Sean Couturier, Vladislav Namestnikov, Jason Pominville, and Josh Bailey are a few players who look poised to carry on successful seasons due to their roles next to superstars like Giroux, Stamkos, Eichel, and Tavares. Be sure to keep your eye out for players who emerge after being slotted next to talented phenoms, because they are coming, and could be the piece that carries your fantasy team to the top. 

Possible Trading Partners for the Struggling Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers currently sit tied for 30th in the league in Goals For with a less than impressive 30 goals in 12 games, only the Calgary Flames have scored fewer goals so far this season.  With utter disappointment being an understatement to the beginning of the campaigns for offseason acquisitions Ryan Strome and Jussi Jokinen, it is fair to say that at this point, we are desperate to add a scoring punch to help get this team back on track. The only problem is that at this point our options are slim, most teams aren't quite ready to completely throw up the white flag by trading a viable scoring option away at the beginning of November. But, with that being said there have been insane rumors being thrown around the Twittersphere. When over 20 scouts and team representatives were noted taking attendance at Thursdays bout between the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings, and an apparent 3 team trade was discussed between the Avs, Sens, and Predators, we should be prepared that anything can happen, especially with Peter Chiarelli's reputation of not being afraid to pull the trigger. In this article, we will look at the possible options Peter might just pull his trigger on that could have the potential to save the Oilers season and prevent chaos in Oil Country. 


New York Rangers, 5-7-2, 2nd Last in Metropolitan Division

The New York Rangers have had just as a horrendous start to the season as the Oilers have, and maybe just a desperate to turn their ship around in a hurry, or full fledge sink it now in an attempt to reascend to the top sooner rather than take a slow fall to the bottom over the course of the next few years. The Rangers appear to be shopping heavily, as they know they are about to enter a rebuilding stage and want to get in and out of it as soon as possible. A trade between these clubs makes sense since a number of Rangers top end talent only have 1 or 2 years remaining on their contracts. The absolute perfect player the Oilers could acquire from the Rangers is Chris Kreider. The 6'3 224 pound winger has a knack for finding the back of the net, scoring 20 or more goals in 3 consecutive seasons. Almost cracking the 30 goal mark for the red and blue last season on route to a 53 point campaign. Kreider is a rare player in the NHL that possess speed, grit and scoring all in one. The sky would truly be the limit for this player playing next to a superstar like McDavid. The Rangers also have a bundle of other options available too, Mats Zuccarello, Rick Nash, and Ryan McDonagh are all on expiring deals, and there's no question any of those players would help elevate the Oilers to whole other level of elitism. 


Las Vegas Golden Knights, 9-4-0, 2nd in the Pacific

While I hope the Knights are able to continue this amazing start they've had to their season, I think we can all agree its unsustainable, and their team is likely to come back to Earth soon. If the Knights to begin to fall in the standings we could see a number of scoring options become available as they look to bolster their prospect shelf. These options could include the likes of James Neal, Jonathan Marchessault, David Perron, or Mikhail Grabovski, all these players currently on expiring contracts. Even if the Golden Knights do find a way to continue the success they've been having, there could be a number of defensemen available to trade for. However, this seems unlikely as Sekera is set to return soon and the Oilers already have solid defensive depth. I feel if the Oilers were gonna try to obtain defencemen from the Golden Knights they would have picked up one off waivers that they traded a first and second round pick for a few years ago in a deep draft.


Vancouver Canucks, 6-4-2, 4th in the Pacific

While the team is experiencing early success it's fair to say that their roster simply is not the makeup of a playoff team. Adding a streaky scorer like Thomas Vanek could be a viable low-risk, high-reward option to add in the Oilers top 6 and put some gas on the fire for of the teams powerplay. However, it's rare to see division rivals trade, especially early on in the season, and its also hard to predict what Jim Benning's thinking at times. This is a young team though, with lots of good prospects which makes it likely that a player like Vanek on an expiring deal would become available, I just feel we would have to wait until the deadline. 



Wild Cards:

Sam Reinhart, BUF, 13GP, 2G-3A-5P

The 2nd overall pick of the 2014 Entry Draft has like his brother, had a difficult time transferring his junior success to the NHL. The Sabres currently have him slotted as their 3rd line center. Like Griffin Reinhart, I also worry about his speed. However, with that said there is no questioning his goal-scoring and playmaking abilities. A swap of some sort involving Strome could make sense here as both teams could try and see how a shakeup works. But in all honesty, I think it's a long shot the Oilers go after Reinhart, especially with the way the last trade for a Reinhart worked out, and the fact they didn't even pick Griffin up when he was placed on waivers by the Golden Knights shows how important they feel adding players with speed to their lineup is. 


Andreas Athanasiou, DET, 4 GP, 1G-1A-2P

The  23-year-old London, Ontario native bolstered an impressive 18 goals in 64 games for the Red Wings last season. Proving that he has tremendous upside and goal-scoring ability. This summer saw a disagreement with both sides in contract negotiations, which lead to Andreas spending the beginning of the year practicing overseas until a one year deal was met between the two sides in mid-October. While the Red Wings have stated that they have no intent on trading this player, we could see him moved if contract negotiations go south again and the Red Wings opt to get something done for the scoring winger this season rather than watch him walk for nothing come the offseason. 


Conclusion: 


The Oilers are in a tough spot. On one hand, they feel desperate to turn this season around before chaos ensues, but on the other, you don't want to make a panic move just to make a move. They have outplayed other teams most of the games this year, regardless of the final score. But at the end of the day, that just isn't good enough when you have a generational superstar in your lineup. It's very possible that a player like Strome or Jokinen could have come up as potential solutions at this time if the Oilers had acquired different players this offseason that also had terrible starts. At the end of the day, unless there is a way to acquire a superb talent like Chris Kreider or really any of the top Rangers players rumored to be available at the right price, it may be better to sit tight and have the answers come from within. If the team still isn't in an ideal place come the trade deadline, snagging a streaky scorer like a Vanek or others at a relatively low cost could be a good gamble to make. 

Bold Moves -Part Two

 Bold Moves -Part Two

     Since taking the helm as both the General Manager and President of Hockey Ops of the Edmonton Oilers since April of last year, I think it would be safe to say Peter Chiarelli has made some "Bold Moves." (-as a former Oiler GM would put it..) Some seen to be good asset management and helping to improve the team. While other trades have been the subject of some controversy. In todays post, we will continue to look at the trades Chiarelli has made in his time with the Oilers and grade them:



Trade: Philip Larsen for 2017 5th Round Pick
Grade: Neutral
Comment: Good asset management here. Oilers still held the rights of Larsen and got something for him, however that 5th round pick has little chance of having an impact.

Trade: Justin Schultz for 2016 3rd Round Pick
Grade: Loss
Comment: Schultz has played really well for the Penguins as of late, but it was clear his time in Edmonton was done. Peguins got a player with still some promise for a bargain of a deal.

Trade: Teddy Purcell for 2016 3rd Round Pick
Grade: Win
Comment: Purcell played poorly for the Panthers in their playoff push, was sent on waivers (and cleared) by the King this season. This deadline sell looks like a win.

Trade: Andres Nilsson for Niklas Lundstrom, 2016 5th Round Pick
Grade: Neutral
Comment: Nilsson ended up not working in Edmonton. Didn't give much up to get him, and the value in return then was the same.

Trade Martin Gernat, 2016 4th Round Pick for Patrick Maroon
Grade: Win
Comment: Really good deal, Maroon has been a welcome addition to this Oiler team. Not to mention the Ducks are retaining 25% of his salary..

Trade: Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson
Grade: Loss
Comment: Here it is- The long awaited trade to solidify the defence. And it was definitely underwhelming. If we got a 2nd Round Pick in the deal as well (we lose ours to Boston for compensation) I think it would be more reasonable.

Trade: Nail Yakupov for Zack Pochiro, 2017 3rd Round Pick*
* Pick becomes a 2018 2nd Round Pick if Yakupov scores 15 or more goals in the 16-17 season.
Grade: Win
Comment: like Schultz, Nail's time here was up, and he is a healthy scratch more then he plays in St. Louis. Huge fall for the former first rounder.


Total Tally:
Win- 7
Loss- 4
Neutral- 3



Matt Chartrand 
Writer - OILERS INSIDERS

Bold Moves -Part One

Bold Moves -Part One

     Since taking the helm as both the General Manager and President of Hockey Ops of the Edmonton Oilers since April of last year, I think it would be safe to say Peter Chiarelli has made some "Bold Moves." (-as a former Oiler GM would put it..) Some seen to be good asset management and helping to improve the team. While other trades have been the subject of some controversy. In todays post, we will look at the trades Chiarelli has made in his time with the Oilers and grade them:

Trade: 2015 1st round pick, 2nd round pick for Griffin Reinhart
Grade: Loss
Comment: Yep, this was Chiarelli's first move with the the Oilers and results have been pretty underwhelming thus far. Giving up two tops picks in a deep draft for another left shot dman who has yet to assert himself as part of the team. Could Reinhart still turn into a legit NHL defensemen? Yes, dmen, like goalies take longer to develop and I recommend to stay patient with him. But regardless of Griffin panning out, this was an overpay and the Islanders got two really good players in the deal. (They flipped the second in a deal to acquire another first.) Interesting to note, Some believe this was the original package for Dougie Hamilton until the Bruins sent him to the Flames. Others say this trade has has the fingerprints of Lowe and MacT all over it; either way bad trade.

Trade: 2015 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, 7th round pick for Cam Talbot, 2015 7th round pick
 Grade: Win

Comment: This is more like it! Cam Talbot has finally been the answer to the Oilers long goaltending woes. Compared to other deals involving goalies at the time, Talbot was had for relatively cheap. Needless to say this is one of Chiarelli's best moves to date.

Trade: Martin Marincin, Brad Ross for 2015 4th round pick
Grade: Neutral

Comment: A fairly unremarkable deal that sent Marincin to Toronto for the pick that Chiarelli would flip for Gryba. It's a trade that hasn't been that altering to either team. Marincin has found himself a bottom paring role in Toronto, but would he have in Edmonton? Hard to say, but I would say no.

Trade: Travis Ewanyk, 2015 4th round pick for Eric Gryba
Grade: Win
Comment: Gryba has been a solid 6/7th guy on the Oilers back end, and has played well with Nurse and helping him develop. Gryba is also the ever so rare right shot defencemen on the Oilers blueline. Ewanyk was nothing special, a minor win for Chiarelli.


Trade: Boyd Gordon for Lauri Korpikoski
Grade: Loss
Comment: A misfire by Chiarelli here, trying to get some depth scoring in Korpikoski? It's not like Boyd Gordon was a big irreplaceable piece. Oilers ended up buying out Korpikoski while Boyd Gordon's deal expired. Add this to the loss pile.


Trade: Liam Coughlin for Andres Neilson
Grade: Win
Comment: While Neilson didn't end up working out and being later traded again, the Oilers didn't give much- or anything at all really for him in the first place. He had one good run in December last season and for that alone this will be considered a win.


Trade: Ben Scrivens for Zack Kassian
Grade: Win
Comment: While Ben Scrivens isn't even in the NHL anymore, Kassian has found himself a 4th line role with the Oilers and has contributed to the Oilers becoming a "bigger team" like Chiarelli envisioned. I believe both the management and coaching staff like this player, and he fits a niche role nicely.


-Continued in Part Two





Matt Chartrand 
Writer - OILERS INSIDERS