Fantasy Friday: Lethal Forwards

New players being paired with top performers has led to a drastic change in Fantasy value across the NHL. Who would have thought a guy like Vladislav Namestnikiv would have any fantasy relevance before he was paired up with Stamkos and Kucherov on the red-hot lightning first line. Or that Josh Bailey would have 20 points in his first 18 games slotted beside John Tavares. For many stars, it has been a horrendous start to the season. Brent Burns is still looking for his first goal of the season despite leading all defencemen with 71 shots fired on net.  And skilled forwards like Mitch Marner are still looking to recover the magic of last season as he continues to struggle to find his game late into November. In this article, we will take a look at which of these stars you can bank on turning their season around and should be attained at a good bargain, while also noting which ones to avoid, and who can be dependable waiver pickups that promise sustainable production. 

Buy Low 

Max Pacioretty - MTL, 20GP, 7G-5A, 12 points 

It has been a disastrous start for Pacioretty and the Canadiens, who somehow found a way to give the Arizona Coyotes of all teams their first regulation win of the season on Thursday night. However, with Pacioretty, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The consistent 30+ goal scorer over the last 5 seasons currently leads the league in shots, with a whopping 94 shots in 20 games played. His current shooting percentage of 7.2% is well below his career average of 11.2%, so based on averages alone and an increase in shot attempts, you can expect his scoring to jump, and expect it to jump quick. He already has 8 points in his last 7 games, so get him at a bargain while you still can. Count on Pacioretty to get 30+ goals and 60+ points, like he has done the last 5 straight seasons. Odds are you could get an impatient owner to flip him for a much less consistent scorer who usually scores around 50 points and is currently overproducing by most standards. 

Joe Pavelski - SJ, 17GP, 4G-4A, 8 points
Joe Pavelski has been one of the NHL's most consistent scorers of the last decade, posting 60+ points in every non-lockout season since 2010/11, and has reached the 70 point mark three times in that span. With that being said, he currently isn't looking so hot this season and has only gotten 8 points for the Sharks in 17 games. Reasonably, fantasy owners are beginning to worry about Pavelski and his struggling teammates. However, as Pavelski's shooting percentage begins to trend upward from 8.2% to his career average of 12% and his teammates begin to get out of their slumps, expect a surge of offense from Pavelski and the rest of the struggling offensive juggernauts in San Jose. Take advantage of an impatient fantasy owner and load up your roster by adding a consistent 60-70 point scorer like Pavelski to your lineup, it's only a matter of time before it will pay off. 

Sell High

James Neal - VGK, 18 GP, 10G-5A, 15 points 

The solid scorer has been an absolute hero for the expansion team through the first month of their season. While Neal has been a consistent 20+ goal scorer and is currently on pace for 45 goals this season, he is also close to doubling his career shooting percentage of 12.8% and is also starting to see his ice time trend downward through the last 5 games. There's no question the Golden Knights and James Neal are overproducing so far this season. However, I'm not saying you need to get rid of Neal, he is still a reliable source of offense, it is just likely that he could be traded for a much more valuable player who hasn't had the same kind of success early on in the season. 

Logan Couture - SJ, 17GP, 10G-5A, 15 Points

Like Neal, I feel that as a fantasy owner you could sit perfectly happy with some early overproduction of this player and be perfectly happy with the results. As a player like Couture is still very likely to put up great numbers this year. However, especially in Couture's case, you could potentially flip this player to an unsatisfied owner for a superstar forward who could turn into one of your team's top producers come April. The reason I bring up Couture as potential trade bait is because he hasn't cracked 60 points since 2014/15 is injury prone, and is also currently holding a shooting percentage of 22%, nearly double his career average of 12.3%. With this kind of hot start, you could pull in a potential big fish with a guy like Couture, just be careful though, because he still possesses the talent to make you regret it. 

Keep Your Eye On...

Kyle Connor - WPG, 13GP, 4G-4A, 8 Points

The Jets rookie is currently playing on a first line consisting of Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheiffle and has a spot on a star-studded first powerplay unit for the Jets. He is scoring at a respectable pace so far, and he could really make a splash if he keeps his current top line and first powerplay roles on a talented Jets roster. Especially if he's able to translate his torrid scoring touch from the USHL, NCAA, and AHL to the NHL level. 

Gabriel Landeskog - COL, 18GP, 8G-6A, 14 Points

Last season was one to forget for the Swedish captain and the Colorado Avalanche. However, they have bounced back better than anyone would have thought. Landeskog appears to be back to his 50-60 point range. And with a higher scoring Avalanche team and a comfy spot on the top line and first powerplay unit, I see no reason he doesn't regain that range in a comeback season. 

Conclusion

This time of year sees fantasy owners that love to over evaluate players who are off to hot starts. When looking to acquire or ship off players with bolstering starts to their seasons, be sure to consider factors that contribute to sustainable production like where they slot in the line-up, TOI, time on PP, SOG, and Shooting %. Also be sure to consider how their numbers in November compare to their career averages. There are many cases so far of players who are looking like they will have great seasons due to playing on top lines with star players and should hold significant value despite their lack of production in recent years. Players like Sean Couturier, Vladislav Namestnikov, Jason Pominville, and Josh Bailey are a few players who look poised to carry on successful seasons due to their roles next to superstars like Giroux, Stamkos, Eichel, and Tavares. Be sure to keep your eye out for players who emerge after being slotted next to talented phenoms, because they are coming, and could be the piece that carries your fantasy team to the top. 

How Will Cammalleri Impact the Oilers Roster?

Just before puck drop on Wednesday, The Edmonton Oilers flipped struggling defensive forward Jussi Jokinen for Los Angeles' streaky scorer Michael Cammalleri. Peter Chiarelli has made it very clear that he was shopping Jokinen after being disappointed with the starts to his offseason acquisitions. While the Jokinen experiment didn't work out, shuffling the cards for a proven scorer in Cammellari could help the Oilers find the depth scoring they have been desperately looking for. Oilers fans are hoping that Cammalleri will have an impact on the roster in a way Jussi Jokinen just wasn't able to do.

As per DailyFaceOff.com, Mike Cammalleri will be situated next to Ryan Strome and Iiro Pakarinen on the third line for tonight's matchup against the St.Louis Blues, currently holding the spot as the best in the west. Cammalleri coming into this role pushes struggling Drake Caggiuila down to the fourth line and takes Jujhar Khaira out of the lineup. It is unfortunate to see a young forward Khaira who was finally coming into his own get knocked out of the lineup. He made a solid case for Todd McLellan to keep him by providing a goal and two assists, one being a remarkable shorthanded pass to set up Oscar Klefbom's goal, in two solid games with the big club in November. While it is hard to see a young player go who has been playing up to par in his short stint in the Oilers Lineup, this trade still adds to a key piece of Chia's philosophy: adding competition in depth roles. When a player in a bottom role sees Jokinen get shipped out of town when he isn't producing, that player has got to be wondering what happens to him once a guy like Slepyshev returns to the lineup. You better bet he's going to step up his game, or he won't have a spot in the lineup, especially with young guys like Khaira breathing down their neck hungry for a spot with the main squad. That's why I feel this was an important trade for Chiarelli to make, It sends a message that no one should be comfortable, and adds, even more, competition for depth spots.

Another reason I like this trade is that it is a pure one for one swap of veteran players. I wouldn't have wanted to see any resources given up unless it was for a bonafide 20 goal scorer who could play in the top six night in and night out. Trading a struggling Jokinen for a known sniper who didn't like where he fit in the Kings lineup efficiently helps add to depth scoring, something that has a been a major struggle this year as the Oilers held down the fort of last place in Goals For before erupting for 8 goals past the expansion Golden Knights. There is no harm in bringing in a known sniper to see if he can spark some offense and bring another weapon to the second powerplay, while also pushing struggling forwards to find their game and find it quick.

I could look into deep analytical stats comparing Jokinen to Cammalleri, but at the end of the day, it comes down to this: The Oilers swapped a struggling 34-year-old with 1point and decent possession numbers for another veteran with an almost identical contract who has been scoring at a respectable pace so far this season. There is absolutely no risk involved in this trade whatsoever. If Jokinen does find his game in Los Angeles, well good for him he's still 34. And if Cammalleri doesn't work out, he's a 35-year-old on a one year contract that can be dumped at the Oilers pleasure. The best case scenario is the Oilers finally spark some depth scoring and add another piece to their second powerplay unit. It's only a matter of time before the Oilers find themselves out of the bottom of the league for goals for, and while it would be nice to bring in a horse of a goal scorer to put in the top six, a trade like this can only benefit a boost in goal production from happening sooner rather than later.

Possible Trading Partners for the Struggling Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers currently sit tied for 30th in the league in Goals For with a less than impressive 30 goals in 12 games, only the Calgary Flames have scored fewer goals so far this season.  With utter disappointment being an understatement to the beginning of the campaigns for offseason acquisitions Ryan Strome and Jussi Jokinen, it is fair to say that at this point, we are desperate to add a scoring punch to help get this team back on track. The only problem is that at this point our options are slim, most teams aren't quite ready to completely throw up the white flag by trading a viable scoring option away at the beginning of November. But, with that being said there have been insane rumors being thrown around the Twittersphere. When over 20 scouts and team representatives were noted taking attendance at Thursdays bout between the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings, and an apparent 3 team trade was discussed between the Avs, Sens, and Predators, we should be prepared that anything can happen, especially with Peter Chiarelli's reputation of not being afraid to pull the trigger. In this article, we will look at the possible options Peter might just pull his trigger on that could have the potential to save the Oilers season and prevent chaos in Oil Country. 


New York Rangers, 5-7-2, 2nd Last in Metropolitan Division

The New York Rangers have had just as a horrendous start to the season as the Oilers have, and maybe just a desperate to turn their ship around in a hurry, or full fledge sink it now in an attempt to reascend to the top sooner rather than take a slow fall to the bottom over the course of the next few years. The Rangers appear to be shopping heavily, as they know they are about to enter a rebuilding stage and want to get in and out of it as soon as possible. A trade between these clubs makes sense since a number of Rangers top end talent only have 1 or 2 years remaining on their contracts. The absolute perfect player the Oilers could acquire from the Rangers is Chris Kreider. The 6'3 224 pound winger has a knack for finding the back of the net, scoring 20 or more goals in 3 consecutive seasons. Almost cracking the 30 goal mark for the red and blue last season on route to a 53 point campaign. Kreider is a rare player in the NHL that possess speed, grit and scoring all in one. The sky would truly be the limit for this player playing next to a superstar like McDavid. The Rangers also have a bundle of other options available too, Mats Zuccarello, Rick Nash, and Ryan McDonagh are all on expiring deals, and there's no question any of those players would help elevate the Oilers to whole other level of elitism. 


Las Vegas Golden Knights, 9-4-0, 2nd in the Pacific

While I hope the Knights are able to continue this amazing start they've had to their season, I think we can all agree its unsustainable, and their team is likely to come back to Earth soon. If the Knights to begin to fall in the standings we could see a number of scoring options become available as they look to bolster their prospect shelf. These options could include the likes of James Neal, Jonathan Marchessault, David Perron, or Mikhail Grabovski, all these players currently on expiring contracts. Even if the Golden Knights do find a way to continue the success they've been having, there could be a number of defensemen available to trade for. However, this seems unlikely as Sekera is set to return soon and the Oilers already have solid defensive depth. I feel if the Oilers were gonna try to obtain defencemen from the Golden Knights they would have picked up one off waivers that they traded a first and second round pick for a few years ago in a deep draft.


Vancouver Canucks, 6-4-2, 4th in the Pacific

While the team is experiencing early success it's fair to say that their roster simply is not the makeup of a playoff team. Adding a streaky scorer like Thomas Vanek could be a viable low-risk, high-reward option to add in the Oilers top 6 and put some gas on the fire for of the teams powerplay. However, it's rare to see division rivals trade, especially early on in the season, and its also hard to predict what Jim Benning's thinking at times. This is a young team though, with lots of good prospects which makes it likely that a player like Vanek on an expiring deal would become available, I just feel we would have to wait until the deadline. 



Wild Cards:

Sam Reinhart, BUF, 13GP, 2G-3A-5P

The 2nd overall pick of the 2014 Entry Draft has like his brother, had a difficult time transferring his junior success to the NHL. The Sabres currently have him slotted as their 3rd line center. Like Griffin Reinhart, I also worry about his speed. However, with that said there is no questioning his goal-scoring and playmaking abilities. A swap of some sort involving Strome could make sense here as both teams could try and see how a shakeup works. But in all honesty, I think it's a long shot the Oilers go after Reinhart, especially with the way the last trade for a Reinhart worked out, and the fact they didn't even pick Griffin up when he was placed on waivers by the Golden Knights shows how important they feel adding players with speed to their lineup is. 


Andreas Athanasiou, DET, 4 GP, 1G-1A-2P

The  23-year-old London, Ontario native bolstered an impressive 18 goals in 64 games for the Red Wings last season. Proving that he has tremendous upside and goal-scoring ability. This summer saw a disagreement with both sides in contract negotiations, which lead to Andreas spending the beginning of the year practicing overseas until a one year deal was met between the two sides in mid-October. While the Red Wings have stated that they have no intent on trading this player, we could see him moved if contract negotiations go south again and the Red Wings opt to get something done for the scoring winger this season rather than watch him walk for nothing come the offseason. 


Conclusion: 


The Oilers are in a tough spot. On one hand, they feel desperate to turn this season around before chaos ensues, but on the other, you don't want to make a panic move just to make a move. They have outplayed other teams most of the games this year, regardless of the final score. But at the end of the day, that just isn't good enough when you have a generational superstar in your lineup. It's very possible that a player like Strome or Jokinen could have come up as potential solutions at this time if the Oilers had acquired different players this offseason that also had terrible starts. At the end of the day, unless there is a way to acquire a superb talent like Chris Kreider or really any of the top Rangers players rumored to be available at the right price, it may be better to sit tight and have the answers come from within. If the team still isn't in an ideal place come the trade deadline, snagging a streaky scorer like a Vanek or others at a relatively low cost could be a good gamble to make. 

Defensive Depth -Davidson and more

Defensive Depth

     The Edmonton Oilers have a good problem right now. For a long time, too long; The organization have ran some of the worst d-corps in the entire league. That is, until this season. Oil fans rejoice as the team finally has competent defensemen (Good riddance Nikita Nikitin). Some smart signings like Russell and Benning have contributed heavily to this newly-found Defensive Depth. But a good problem is still a problem. The Las Vegas Golden Knights will be joining the NHL scene next season via Expansion draft. And Peter Chiarelli will have to make some tough decisions regarding the roster, of who to protect and who to expose. A prime example of a player subject to this is Brandon Davidson.

Brandon Davidson: Expansion Concerns

     Brandon Davidson became waiver eligible last season though he stayed on the roster, and that was the right call. He was a bright spot on the team and has good underlying numbers to back him. However, he is probably a prime target for Vegas Knights GM George McPhee in the upcoming expansion draft. It is possible to protect Davidson, going the 8 Forward/Defense and 1 goalie route. But I think that is unlikely, as 7 forward 3 defense and 1 goalie is the other protection option. Also currently Davidson is playing in Darnell Nurse's since his injury. So despite being a really good player Davidson's place on this roster going forward is questionable. In fear of loosing Brandon for nothing, do we see him moved in a trade to at least get something back for him? Only time will tell, but I think it is a safe bet to say that we do in fact see Davison traded before the expansion draft.

Kris Russell: Re-sign the "shot blocker"?

     Kris Russell was a late free agent signing, he agreed to terms of a one year deal worth 3.1 million on October 7th. Since coming to Edmonton the reaction has been a mixed bag. Some praise the signing as a steal and love his play through the "Eye Test." Others, more specifically the analytics crew look at his Corsi, Fenwick and other advanced stats and see a much different player, a bad player. Russell does block a lot of shots and has been a part of the winning formula this year. Regardless of opinion on him (which I will leave for you to hold your own) the one year deal provides some flexibility with him. Barring extension, Russell will not be expansion draft eligible, because he will be a unrestricted free agent. The Oilers could hypothetically have an unofficial/under-the-table extension deal with him and not re-sign him until after the expansion draft.  Chiarelli has stated interest in re-signing him and with that we could very well see the hypothetical situation above unfold this offseason.

Matt Benning: Top 4 potential?

     I think everyone can agree Matt Benning has been an excellent surprise, like Davidson the season before him. Matt Benning was actually drafted by the Boston Bruins 6th round in the 2012 NHL entry draft, yet a entry level deal was never signed between the two parties. When Keith Gretzky was brought in to be the Oilers assistant General Manager he was the one that heavily advocated to Chiarelli about signing Benning, and the right handed shot has been a welcome addition. Could Matt Benning become a top 4 defenseman for the Oilers? If so it would make re-signing Kris Russell a waste of precious cap space. What if in the future Benning is playing in Russell's spot and Russell is playing on the bottom pair or worse, he becomes Fayne/Ference 2.0. Which would be very bad with a little someone named Connor McDavid needing a contract. If Russell is re-signed to longer-term deal I think it shows that the Oilers Management don't believe Benning to be capable of a top 4 role.

Final Thoughts:

     If I was the General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers, Davidson would be traded for something rather then lost in the expansion draft, It's just good asset management. I would try to re-sign Kris Russell to a contract extension, but try to get him on a shorter term deal such as a two or three year deal. That is because I do believe Matt Benning has the potential to be a top 4 defender. Nonetheless, I am not the GM of the Oilers; Peter Chiarelli is. These are interesting and exciting times for us Oiler fans but only time will truly tell the course of action the team takes in the days and weeks leading forward.

-Credit to CapFriendly and their excellent expansion draft tool: https://www.capfriendly.com/

Matt Chartrand 

Writer - OILERS INSIDERS

How Much is RNH Really Worth?

There is no question that Ryan-Nugent Hopkins is a valuable player for the Edmonton Oilers. However, he is now surrounded by a new cast of players and his role has changed significantly since signing his 7 year / 42 million dollar contract that sustains a 6 million dollar cap hit with the Edmonton Oilers. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has proved that he can play a 200 foot game in the NHL and has shown that he has exceptional offensive abilities during the World Hockey Championships with Team North America, and during his promising 70 point pace rookie season. In this article we are going to take a closer look at where Ryan Nugent Hopkins stacks up with Points/GP, TOI/GP, SOG/GP,  +/- , and FOW% and see how his contract compares to NHL centremen in his range. While this exercise is not the most accurate way to determine the worth of a NHL player, it can still give us some insight of how they stack up to similar players on other teams.

Points/GP

Ryan Nugent Hopkins - 0.56 points per game

Comparables:

Jordan Staal - 6,000,000

Sean Couturier- 4.333,333

Kyle Turris - 3,500,000

TOI/GP

Ryan Nugent Hopkins - 18:34 (Rank:34)

Comparables:

Sean Couturier - 4,333,333

Joe Thornton - 6,750,000

Sean Monahan - 6,350,000

Shots On Goal/GP (2016 season only)

Ryan Nugent Hopkins - 2.75 (Rank 58, among all skaters)

Comparables:

Logan Couture - 6,000,000

Claude Giroux - 8,275,000

Eric Staal - 3,500,000

Plus/Minus +/-

Ryan Nugent Hopkins : -18 (Rank 270)

Comparables:

Sean Monahan -  6,350,000

Matt Duchene - 6,000,000

Mathieu Perreault - 3,000,000

Faceoff Winning %

Ryan Nugent Hopkins - 45.4% (Rank 189)

Comparables:

Artem Anisimov - 4,550,000

Adam Henrique - 4,000,000

Charlie Coyle- 3,200,000

Verdict:

From doing this exercise it became clear that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a valuable player in all aspects of his game. By looking at players he is comparable within the respective categories it is fair to value him at around 4,000,000 dollars on the low end and 6,000,000 dollars on the high end of scale. The player Nuge is most comparable to would probably be Sean Couturier of the Philadelphia Flyers. A player who can play in the top six and provide offense, while also being able to be utilized as an effective third line shutdown centre, all depending on where they slot in the lineup. Ryan is a luxury that may soon be hard to fit into the Oilers long-term salary plans, with new deals for McDavid, Draisaitl, and many other young players apart of the team’s core due in the near future.

Adam Girard

Writer/Founder - OILERS INSIDERS